Just how dire is the situation for the New York Giants?
Well, they’re almost catching double digits as road underdogs against a 4-6 Washington Commanders team in Week 11 odds.
New York brings a three-game skid to the nation’s capital, with injuries up and down the depth chart. Quarterback continues to be a challenge for the Giants, who are left starting struggling rookie Tommy DeVito yet again.
Washington, on the other hand, could have the answer to its lingering QB question. Sam Howell currently leads the league in passing yards and completions, sparking a resurgence in the Commanders’ offense.
Is that discrepancy worth the pile of points being handed to the visitor by the NFL odds?
We’ll find out as I run down the point spread and Over/Under total for this divisional rivalry and give my best NFL picks for Giants vs. Commanders on November 19.
Giants vs Commanders odds
Giants vs Commanders predictions
One of my first bets of Week 11 was the Over 36 in this NFC East matchup, leaning heavily on the renaissance under center for the Washington Commanders.
With Sam Howell focusing on passing quicker to avoid taking drive-killing sacks, the Commanders air attack is stretching their legs. Howell has thrown for 300-plus yards in three straight games with eight touchdowns, bumping Washington to No. 8 in EPA per dropback since Week 8.
The Commanders posted 31 points in their Week 8 loss to the Eagles, put up 20 points in a win over the Patriots (leaving points on the table with a 1-for-4 RZ day), and hung 26 points on the board in a shootout loss to the Seahawks in Week 10.
Washington is starting to gain traction in new offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy’s system, and it’s not just Howell doing big things. The rushing game has flourished in recent outings as well, with the RB combo of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson averaging 4.7 yards per attempt over the past three weeks.
That balanced offense now faces a New York Giants defense that currently has nine players with an injury designation in Week 11 — either out, doubtful, or questionable. That includes each of the current starters in the secondary and two starting LBs in Kayvon Thibodeaux and Bobby Okereke.
Even when the stop unit was healthy, New York wasn’t putting up much of a fight. The Giants are among the bottom of the NFL in many basic and advanced defensive metrics and give up more than 30 points per game on the road.
Given that New York’s offense is in just as bad a shape and sitting second lowest in first downs per game, there will be added possessions for Howell & Co. to keep the points coming in front of the D.C. faithful on Sunday.
Washington has had trouble putting up points against the Giants in recent meetings, scoring 20 or less in seven of its last 10 head-to-head encounters going back to 2018. However, these are dire circumstances for New York and the most life we’ve seen from the Commanders offense all season.
My best bet: Commanders team total Over 23.5 (+100 at DraftKings)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Giants vs Commanders same-game parlay
Commanders team total Over 23.5Sam Howell Over 1.5 passing touchdownsBrian Robinson anytime touchdown
+28- at bet365
The Commanders are clicking and facing a shorthanded Giants defense that is allowing more than 30 points on the road. Howell is making it rain the past three weeks with eight total touchdowns. He’ll expose a dinged-up Giants secondary for at least two more TDs.
Meanwhile, Robinson gets the bulk of red zone carries for the Commanders and can find paydirt both on the ground and through the air. New York has allowed 12 TDs to running backs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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